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2019 & What a Surprise So Far

Kenilworth and Coventry. Wednesday 2nd January 2019. Christmas Break and New Year over (Somewhat thankfully for the tummy and the head at least!). Five sales instructions, two letting instructions and over forty viewing appointments booked into two office diaries. Not exactly what I was expecting that’s for sure.

My trepidation for the year ahead wasn’t based upon our own sales pipelines (which were sizeably higher than the year previous) but the overwhelming negativity promoted by the general media. Bad news travels faster than good. We all know that negative or stressful news is far more readable and enticing than good.

“Everything is OK. Mortgage rates are low and lenders are even giving you cash back as they try to attract new business. Brexit’s OK too. It’s all been smoke and mirrors. Everything is fine. If you need to move then move”.

I’d put my name to that quote (as I wrote it!) but I’m being entirely flippant. I haven’t got a clue.

Let’s think about all of us for a moment though. If your employer is not trembling in her heels and your boss hasn’t mooted redundancies overheard in the gents toilets then just look at yourself. What has really changed? What is different with Brexit than without? Your own home. Your own life. Do you borrow and extend? Do you move instead? Do you accept the daily stress of living in the wrong area or within a horrendous commute?

Geographically we are often lucky. Like the weather and hopefully the return of the Beast from the East, we don’t suffer the extremes here.

Mortgage rates are genuinely excellent despite the banks remaining cautious. They’re not giving mortgages away. They’re just lending wisely.

If you buy wisely, you borrow wisely and you show your own due diligence then the ideal house could be sat there waiting for you. Everything is relative.

Memories are short. Only 18 months ago the buying process was fraught with the horrors of up to a dozen buyers for every popular home. 7 out of 10 houses were rocketing above asking price. Their were more unhappy, “missed out again” buyers than happy ones.

Now you will have the time to even book a second viewing. House prices aren’t soaring above asking price. The houses selling (genuinely in greater numbers than 18 months ago!) don’t have multiple buyers but are selling for the right price and to the right people.

On the ground locally, sense seems to exist in the market despite the political turmoil surrounding and intellectualising it beyond any comprehension. Maybe everything really is OK.

Flocking Out Of London For A New Nest Here!

Well we’ve seen it with our own eyes. We’ve opened the doors and we’ve shook the hands. We’ve passed the keys into the palms of many 30 and 40 somethings excited to be leaving the capital for the size, space and peace offered here on our own doorsteps. Now both Nationwide and the Resolution Foundation thinktank have statistically proven the exodus from London northward. With property prices down 5% year on year and with over 330,000 leaving the city last year (ONS statistics, year ending June 2017), London is the only region in the country with falling prices with the average increase nationally being 2.2%.

The Midlands, most specifically Birmingham, but now Coventry and the surrounding towns of Kenilworth, Leamington Spa and Warwick have seen the highest property price increases over the last year with a regional average of 4.5%.

Infrastructure is vital. Investment in the city and the towns will reap rewards for all and the Rail network’s part in this cannot be understated. Whether people live in or out of London they’ve still got to get there after all.

Closer to home though and on an emotional level, the appeal of a commute no longer than many travelling from Wimbledon to Wembley means that living in Kenilworth or Earlsdon or Styvechale or Leamington Spa will offer substantially more living space for the pound. It will also offer a community that can see children raised in outstanding schools without a forty five minute traffic jam and a bill for £100 a day childcare.

The distance between us and London seems to be getting smaller every year. Whether or not Mash and Liquor will be sold at The Almanack or Millsys though could be a step too far….

Autumn Sales & Dangling Christmas Baubles!

Firstly, apologies for the word “Christmas” being used before Mid November. Within this industry though the “Christmas Effect” often generates the same response as the “Autumn Sale”. And it does happen early.

There are a multitude of reasons why people want to sell. For those who genuinely want, or need, to sell (not because they “may” want a change or they have seen only one unique property they want) then having a sale agreed before the next calendar “milestone” seems to be a much needed psychological box ticked.

With over 37% of properties (nationwide) being reduced from the initial listing (our average sits currently at 8.8%) this Autumn Sale has hit a 5 year high. Why?

Once again, over eager pricing to win the instruction or the clients desire to ride the high price wave experienced by neighbours in the Spring could be the most obvious motivations.

The simplest explanation to the dangers of over valuing are easily explained . If I value your home at £400,000 and you want the house marketed at £425,000 (and we both agree the launch marketing is perfect!) then if no one comes, we know the launch price was wrong.

It is, honestly, as simple as that.

At £400,000 (if my appraisal was correct) more than one buyer may well be interested and we secure £410,000. At £425,000 if we then have to reduce, the buying public are aware of the reduction and what comes next are even lower offers than the reduced figure.

So with Christmas around the calendar corner, now must surely be the time to consolidate. A rebrand and a sensible asking price will surely be recipe needed to generate the sale price you need.

Leaving you free to think about what to buy your Children and your Aunts, what food you’re preparing, whose house you are going to on Boxing Day, whether Mable prefers Sherry or Port and whether Santa is actually a good or bad influence etc etc……………..

Why Over Inflated House Pricing Sells Your Neighbours House and Not Yours!

Welcome back! That was as long a Summer as I’ve enjoyed without Sun as far as I can even remember!

Business however was brighter. There was none of the traditional slow down over the months of July and August whatsoever. Instruction levels were high and the interest accordingly. The buyers we needed to attract had obviously decided to not take gloriously long overseas holidays and instead concentrate on securing new home’s for themselves!

Such a successful Summer led me to review the market in general and a couple of valuations I was involved with.

Now, more than ever, the asking price for a home is so crucial that an overvaluation will have such negative effect it will simply show buyers what good value neighbouring homes are instead of your own. I am not saying undervaluing is the solution but, put simply, it bears no risk in comparison to its capitalist and heinous cousin, the greedy valuation.

If a house is truly “undervalued” whether purposefully or accidentally then the worst that will happen is the public will agree it’s exceptional value and numerous offers will then be received. Through negotiation the price then reaches the correct (and increased value!). Although as a buyer this can be an unpleasant experience, a good agent, if they handle it correctly and honestly, will offer advice and build relationships that will help those unlucky first time round (or third if you are like myself!) that will come good in the end.

I looked at the Purple Bricks very carefully. I saw more local instructions with Purple Bricks than any other agent. With false promises (semantics if you will) of no commission (fee’s instead) and a NO SALE BUT STILL PAY OUR FEE philosophy, there is no surprise to see that their “Price Reductions” are also the highest in the local area.

Without being too simplistic about it, the easiest way to achieve an instruction is to tell a client that there property is worth more than it is. Add that to “pay me whether it sells or not” and you have an agent whose ethos is for “being paid for instructions to sell houses for less than the listed price”. If you want annual statistics to prove this point in Black and White (not Purple) then contact me and I’ll be happy to explain that all that glitters isn’t Gold (but it is possibly Purple!).

Coventry Bucking The Trend or Could It Be Ourselves? Just Maybe….

After some careful analysis that we would be delighted to present to any potential client wishing to sell their home, we seem to have bucked a national trend somewhat.

The latest data from NAEA Propertymark has revealed that, during Februrary, agreed house sales rose to a 10 year high – 74% of which were below the original asking price, suggesting sellers are becoming more realistic when it comes to property transactions.

This, although clearly good news, and personally to me, a positive move in terms of reality and affordability, is not what we have observed ourselves. Since January 1st this year we have agreed 35% more sales than the same period last year. Of this and if we consider 100% of our agreed sales we have found that 70% have sold for the asking price or higher.

As a business we are delighted with these results. Now we find that they may be even bucking the trend.

If priced correctly and marketed without compromise and as well as physically possible then asking prices and over asking prices can certainly be achieved.

If your marketing is simply so so and your asking price is too high then what hope could a seller possibly have. Please don’t fall down into this trap.

I valued a house on Friday that needed decorating, offered nothing exceptional at all and had been marketed for 10 weeks by another agent. The asking price was close to 10% too high, the photography was poor and the “professional” advice he received (which achieved only four viewings in 10 weeks) was “don’t worry about the decoration, the new owners can do it themselves”.

Honestly, it’s no wonder Estate Agents aren’t taken seriously sometimes.

Can Self Confidence Really Improve Your Properties Value?

I’m not talking about braggadocio or arrogance here. I’m not even discussing an ability (or lack of) to point out a properties most “sellable” assets. What I’m referring to is our nations endearing strength in it’s own beliefs. With the trigger of Article 50 due later this week many conversations I’ve had over the last fortnight have asked for my opinion on “what will happen?”. Why anyone would ask me I don’t know, but it’s made for a few interesting exchanges.

The HomeOwnersAlliance, after studying recent data released by The Office for National Statistics, revealed the extraordinary evidence that self confidence has not only bucked a trend but stuck candles in it and launched it skyward.

The five regions which voted most strongly to leave the EU have all seen property price increases in excess of 3 per cent compared to June 2016, with the East of England the fastest-growing region at 4.25 per cent.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the only three regions which voted to remain have seen substantially slower growth.

Paula Higgins, Chief Executive of the HomeOwners Alliance said

“There is a clear pattern here; areas that voted more strongly to leave the EU have seen property prices grow faster over the past six months than areas that were pro-remain.

“Of course, house prices are dictated by a myriad of economic, political and social factors, but confidence – the all-important ‘feel-good factor’ – is vital.

This really does show how “optimism” can “trump” negativity. The public feeling more confident in both their everyday lives and working environments is echoed by willingness to not only buy but also to spend. Of course, in regions where many incomes are generated by overseas trade and the associated industries that support it, a real nervousness about personal circumstances cannot be underestimated.

Why would you be willing to invest where uncertainty reigns? Like most aspects of life it all boils down to how confident you feel and no advice or opinion can normally alter that!

If You Hear “I Can’t Believe my Home is Worth That Much!?”, Then it Probably Isn’t!

You’ve just won £250,000 on the lottery but need to pay £500 to have the cheque couriered to you! A relative has left £1.1 Million to you but it’s in a holding account in Nigeria! We Buy Any Car have told you your car is worth more than you could sell it for yourself on Auto Trader! You think your house is worth about £250,000 but an Estate agent with a low volume of agreed sales tells you it should be marketed at £325,000!

If these declarations sound too good to be true, it’s because they are! Since January 1st 2017 we have agreed sales on an incredible amount of new instructions. Sensible sellers, once the facts are presented, understand that if their home is worth “more” they will likely “get more”. Supply and demand in a market place with little stock dictates that buyers may have to pay the “asking price” but if the property is overvalued to start with, then they’ve no idea of the true value anyway. This is when property just sit’s there. And that’s no good for anyone.

If priced “reasonably” the public demand increases and in 70% of the cases this year, our properties have sold for the asking price or above.

Our advice, to enable a smooth sale remains the same. If the buying public think an asking price is reasonable, then the buying public will come. They won’t come one at a time either. You will have a choice of buyers to suit your needs and it’s this balance that makes for as little stress as possible. It’s also this balance that enable’s you to move onwards and secure you new home.

Price Increases in Coventry by 24%. Brexit Showing No Ill Effects Whatsoever!

No Brexit Ill effects whatsoever? Well, as is always the case the deeper you delve the murkier the reality becomes and that certainly seems to be the case here as well.

Coventry has seen tremendous price rises over the last few years with Styvechale and Earlsdon being the forerunners in most cases. Not anymore. Median price increases are certainly more common than price reductions but some areas have suffered when others have soared.

The remarkable and seemingly unstoppable wave of new students in the city dominates those areas with the highest price rises. CV4 including Charter Avenue, Cannon Park, De Montfort Way, Cannon Hill Road and a radius stretching as far as Hearsall Gold Club have seen prices rise from an average of £370,000 to as much as £458,000 over the last calendar year!

CV6 comes a close second but with a very different demographic. Student accommodation again, albeit Coventry University rather than The University of Warwick, has seen similar increases but with dramatically lower actual sales prices agreed.

What must always be considered when analysing statistics like this is what isn’t included. Statistics are only available because transactions take place. Many areas, Earlsdon being a prime example, have become almost landlocked with sellers wanting to move but with not enough property coming to the market for statistics to be even relevant.

This suggests, as we all know, that if you are truly happy in a location then comparable prices are hard to find and that statistics, sometimes, only tell one of a thousand stories!

Inner London Slips As The Rest Of Us Climb

I’m not saying it’s become affordable or that I’d like to live there at all, but Inner London is sensing a disturbance in The Force. Born out of Brexit jitters and high Buy To Let taxes rather than Dark Side itself, Inner London has seen property growth drop over the last year with 14% less houses coming to market and growth recorded at just 0.1%.

With a predicted national average growth of a further 2% in 2017, Inner London seems to be facing a fall of 5% with some boroughs seeing drops of up to 16%.

Now we are seeing London homeowners moving here. Coventry, much improving and seemingly year on year, has become very much part of the commuter belt now.

Please take note London Midland, your Birmingham and Coventry to London trains are integral to the success of this City, no more talk of cancellations please!

The infrastructure of Friargate is finally taking shape (strewth!) and both Jaguar Landrover and both Universities are attracting swaths of new residents to the City.

Not quite so in London where a degree of panic seems to be encroaching with Article 50 threatening even more pressures.

Like I say, I wouldn’t want to live there though. A journey of 60 minutes (if we can find our alarm clocks!) and a railcard is certainly more attractive than a house for half the size and twice the price!

Yep. I like it here. It’s all begin to happen.

As London Property Falters Much Of The UK Bucks The Trend!

When we have written about London pricing soaring and the rest of us catching up, the London marketplace may have smirked. Now, the boot seems to be on the other foot with active growth and non deterred sellers coming to the market in the majority of regions outside of the Bubble. If we take a snapshot over the last six weeks of activity we can see that the two weeks prior to the Referendum saw a like for like drop in instructions by 8% while interestingly the first two weeks post Brexit saw instructions rise by 6%.

Regionally Estate Agents report that the property market continues to build momentum due to the lack of property coming onto the market. The interesting dynamic here is that prices will likely continue to rise unless the volume of instructions increase. With Mortgage rates remaining low and buyers experiencing a degree of panic that further “suitable” properties will “not” come to the market, the higher prices are being,in the majority of cases, offered.

At Elizabeth Davenport we like to see what the public really feel about the price of there ideal home. Our goal is to generate as much interest as possible and not just to sell, but to find the very best buyer; have a choice if you like. This is not going to happen if you price the buyers of your property out of the equation. If the advertised price isn’t cynical the public will appreciate it and multiple buyers can be found. As I’m sure you can see, this does not occur from demanding a price above that which the property is worth. Our Sold to For Sale ratio reflects this with over 65% of our stock consistently sold.

Brexit has not affected the market place in Coventry and Warwickshire because there is not enough stock for sale. Whilst the demand outweighs the supply the prices will, for many of us, remain too high for comfort. But everyone does need to live somewhere. Possibly not London though.