Category: House Prices

Could the high levels of mortgages that Coventry people take out cause another property crash?

Many Coventry homeowners and landlords have been contacting me recently and asking what will happen to the Coventry (and the UK) property market? More specifically, will we have a repeat of the 2008/9 Credit Crunch property crash?

High mortgage payments were one of the critical catalysts to Coventry house prices dropping by between 16% and 19% (depending on the type of property) in just over one year in Coventry.

To answer that question, let me look at the mortgage numbers locally to see where we stand in the Coventry area.

2,674 of the 42,569 property sales in the last decade in Coventry were made with a mortgage

76.8% of our local authority area house purchases have been made with a mortgage (meaning 23.2% are made with 100% cash).

Interesting, when compared with the national average of 67.4% of house purchases with a mortgage over the last decade.

However, what is thought-provoking is the number of house purchasers buying with a mortgage has steadily been increasing over the last decade.

Between 2012 and 2017, the percentage of people buying with a mortgage was 74.9%, yet over the last five years in Coventry, that has risen to 80.3%

 Initially, this doesn’t sound good. Yet, as always with my articles on the Coventry property market, the devil is in the detail.

The issue is that most people need a mortgage to buy their home.

However, it’s not the amount of mortgage that is the issue, more the level of monthly payments. So, if you fix your mortgage rate, then your payments are fixed (a good idea especially as interest rates are on the rise).

In the last quarter, just under nineteen out of twenty (94.35%) of new borrowers that took out a mortgage had a fixed-rate mortgage at an average interest rate of 1.84%

That’s good news for recent buyers as most of their payments won’t rise even though Bank of England interest rates have risen over the last few months. Yet it’s essential to see what existing homeowners with mortgages have done with their mortgage rates (i.e. fixed or not) as they form the bulk of the property market.

This is because in 2008/9 (the last crash), many people were unable to afford their high monthly mortgage payments when they were made redundant because interest rates were much higher. This meant many Coventry homeowners ‘dumped’ their houses onto the market, all in one go in 2008, because they couldn’t afford their high mortgage payments.

Also, the banks could not lend money for mortgages as easily because of the Credit Crunch, meaning fewer people could get a mortgage, so the demand for Coventry houses dropped as well.

In a nutshell, the number of Coventry properties on the market almost doubled overnight in 2008, yet demand plummeted as mortgages were hard to come by. High supply and low demand meant Coventry house prices nosedived in 2008/9

Going into the Credit Crunch, one in six (60.4%) homeowners with a mortgage had a fixed rate at an average rate of 5.76%. By 2013, this had dropped to one in three people (33.29%) having a fixed-rate mortgage at an average of 3.34%.

Yet today, just under 17 out of 20 homeowners with a mortgage have a fixed rate at an average of 1.97%

Whilst the country might owe collectively £1,630.5 billion in mortgages, irrespective of increasing rates, most homeowners have protected themselves with a low fixed interest rate.

Also, the overall ratio of mortgage debt in the UK, compared to the value of the homes the mortgages are lent on, is also low compared to the year before the last property crash. This ratio is called the Loan to Value ratio (LTV). The higher the LTV, the less equity the homeowner has in the property.

In 2007 (the year before the crash), only 49.4% of people had a mortgage less than 75% of the house’s value (i.e. they had an LTV of less than 75%). Today that stands at 60.9%, which means more people have more equity in their property.

Another thought on why the country is in a better position is only 4.22% of mortgages have a 90% or higher LTV (compared to 16.28% just before the crash in 2007).

1 in 6 people were vulnerable to negative equity in the last property crash, whilst today that would only be 1 in 25.

This means if we do have another property market correction for any other reason … the number of people in negative equity will be much smaller, so it won’t affect the property market as much.

So, in conclusion, as we have fewer people with high LTV mortgages and fixed rates that are a third of what they were in the Credit Crunch, we are, as a country, in a better position to weather any storm.

If you would like any advice or opinion on the Coventry property market, be it buying or selling or anything to do with investing in the Coventry buy-to-let property market, don’t hesitate to drop me a line.

Well, what a weekend that was. Street parties, gatherings in the park, the purple bunting, egg and cress sandwiches, union jack flags, cheese and pineapple on cocktail sticks, and let’s not forget the trifle – the Platinum Jubilee Party. And no decent party is worth its salt without a game or a quiz.

 

So, if you have post-Jubilee blues, let me ask you, how much was the average Coventry house worth in 1952?

To start with, let me look at what a property is worth today in Coventry.

The average price paid for a property in the Coventry area

in the last 12 months was £245,380.

 

Now, let’s go back to 1952. Sir Winston Churchill was the Prime Minister, Newcastle won the FA Cup, London was covered in the Great Smog, free prescriptions on the NHS ended (it cost 1 shilling or 5p in new money), and King George IV, at the age of 56 passed away on the 6^th February, meaning Princess Elizabeth became the Queen – as for housing …

The average price of a Coventry home in 1952 was £2,004.

This means Coventry house prices are 121 times higher since 1952.

Yet over the last 70 years, the country has been subjected to 4.5% per annum inflation.

The 1952 Coventry home is equivalent to £38,530 today

when adjusted for inflation.

 

This means Coventry house prices have increased by 504.8% in real terms since 1952.

 

So, does that mean house prices are more expensive today compared to 1952?

 

In 1952, the average annual male wage was £452, 8 shillings and 1 pence, meaning the average Coventry house was 4.43 times the average value of a wage. Today the average home is 8.85 times the average wage.

Yet let us not forget the average mortgage payment in 1952 was £11 per month. The average Brit earned £34 per month, meaning 32.3% of the household income was going on mortgage payments, whilst nationally today, according to the Nationwide, it stands at 28%.

It’s cheaper, in real terms, to buy a property in 2022 than in 1952.

And that’s the point, something things in ‘real terms’ (real terms being true spending power of the money after taking into account wages, costs and inflation) were more expensive and some cheaper 70 years ago. For example, in 1952, petrol was equivalent (in today’s inflation-adjusted prices) to £1.02 per litre, a pint of beer £2, half a dozen eggs £2.20, cheddar cheese £2.40 per 500g, a basic radio £430, a Hoover £530 and a 12-inch TV £1,600.

So back to property, the Queen’s reign has seen some amazing house price rises in the UK, yet that growth hasn’t always been in a constant upward direction, as we have had a couple of dips along the way.

We had a house price crash in 1990, when the average value of a Coventry property dropped from £60,293 to £49,934 in 1996, only for them to start rising again.

Coventry saw another house price crash between 2008 and 2009, and the average house price dropped from £180,363 to £153,762 in a year.

So, what else has changed about property and housing since the Queen came onto the throne?

In 1952, only 32% of people owned their own home, whilst 50% of people rented from a private landlord and 18% rented a council house.

By the time of the Silver Jubilee in 1977, 56% of people owned their own home, with 12% of people privately renting and 32% rented from the council.

Come the Golden Jubilee in 2002, 70% of people owned their own home, with 11% of people privately renting and 19% rented from the council.

Today, 63% of people own their own home, 20% of people

privately rent and 17% rent from the council.

 

So to conclude, as we look forward into the 21^st century, I am sure the property market will be totally different again in 70 years.

 

I hope you enjoyed reading this article and do share it with your friends if you find it interesting.

 

P.S. for all you Rightmove fans, the average Coventry terraced home in 1952 was worth £1,592, and a semi in Coventry could be bought for, on average, £2,060.

 

 

House prices have been significantly on the rise in the last couple of years. In some parts of Warwickshire prices have risen around 30% during the pandemic, defying all of the doom mongers’ predictions when Covid first struck.

But what do these big price changes mean for you as a homeowner? Do you check your property value on a regular basis or have sleepless nights about it?

Hopefully not. However, if you decide to move home then the price increases will undoubtedly have an impact on your moving decisions at that point. If you need to downsize then congratulations. You will be able to cash in on your property’s increase in value and should be able to comfortably purchase a smaller home and walk away with a tidy margin at the end of the process.

But what if you are upsizing or perhaps you are a first time buyer? For sure, first time buyers will have lost out. They will need to have a bigger deposit saved up, trying to save as fast as the market is rising is a tough ask.

For the large numbers of growing families who need to upsize, price increases are also not such good news. It may feel good to look at the latest Zoopla Index and see your property value grow, but if the larger property that you desire down the road is going up in value at the same percentage rate then it is getting further and further out of reach as time goes by.

With high demand and low stock levels remaining as the 2 big underlying fundamentals to market demand, upward pressure on prices is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future. In other words the longer you hold off on that upsize, the tougher it will be to finance when you do decide to take the plunge, so right now, the wait and see approach is costing you money!

Book a valuation today and get the ball rolling on your next home move. Speak to one of our experts, we’ll be delighted to help!

Just 2 weeks into the new year and a pattern is already emerging for the year ahead. Rightmove have just reported the busiest start to the year ever in terms of new enquiries, yet at the same time reported the lowest stock levels ever.

For those of us who did GCSE Economics, one thinks of the Demand vs Supply graph and the inevitable move up the graph this leads to in terms of price. For those of you who were lucky enough to avoid studying Economics at school then simply picture a shop full of eager buyers and just a few items left on the shelf, the inevitable rush this would create and the shop owner effectively being able to ‘name her price’. It’s not rocket science.

The current shortage of property for sale seems to be exacerbating the problem, with some homeowners (who need to move) scared to go on sale for fear of not being able to find somewhere to move to. Understandable but not logical.

February, March and April are traditionally the 3 busiest months of the year for the sale market, and the signs are there that new stock will be coming available very soon. All 3 of our branches are currently busy with valuations and the pipeline of new property is building up.

Do you need or want to move in 2022? If so the best properties will likely be coming to market over the next few weeks. Will you be ready and able to pounce when the RIGHT property becomes available or will you miss out yet again because your own home wasn’t sold or wasn’t even on sale?

Elizabeth Davenport can offer you a no sale/no fee option so if you market with us there is no risk of being out of pocket. If you can’t find somewhere suitable to move to then you simply stay put and there’s no charge. Invite our expert valuer to visit your home today and get free advice on your property value and the current market conditions. We’d love to help.

Following the new year celebrations, you may be wondering what lies in store for property prices. Perhaps you are thinking of moving this year or looking at your investment portfolio and looking for some pointers as to where prices might go in 2022?

If that’s the case then you’re not alone. After a very busy year in 2021 for property sales, things cooled off a little at the end of the year. Does this mean that without any Stamp Duty holiday, 2022 will be much quieter?

Our office opened for 2 days between Christmas and New Year and if the activity during those 2 days was anything to go by, then the market ‘bears’ will be disappointed I’m afraid and the market ‘bulls’ will be excited going into New Year and Spring.

Demand remains high for all of the properties on our books. The fact remains that many workers need to move this year due to changes of jobs and large numbers of sales each year are also due to forced circumstances, so the ‘wait and see’ gang are just a very small portion of the market place.

The main unknown for the year ahead will be supply, but if things remain similar to the last few years then demand will outstrip supply again and that will only create further upward pressure on property prices. Interest rates may go up a little but still remain historically low, so the cost of borrowing and the availability of mortgage funds remain strong factors in all of this.

Ultimately the market looks strong going into 2022 and property remains a strong investment prospect for the foreseeable future. If you would like further advice for the year ahead on your property then call our office and speak to a professional. We’re here to help.

The government’s latest house price index report (published on 15th September 2021) showed some huge price increases year on year. Local area’s that saw some of the best gains included Coventry prices increasing 8.7% (versus the national average in England @ 8%). Warwick’s price rises were more modest at 2% while Stratford Upon Avon saw a whopping 18.7% increase for the same time versus the previous year. Stratford’s average price now stands at £355,000. Warwickshire as a whole faired very well with average increases of 10.9%.

With prices so high right now and no way of predicting what the market will do next, selling could be a smart move for those looking to cash in, downsize or release some equity. There are of course plenty of other scenarios where sellers will benefit including deceased estates and separations.

If you’re a first time buyer of course, this won’t be the news you were looking to hear. Having said that, borrowing rates are at an all time low so whilst you may have to stretch your deposit a little further, repayments will be very modest once you’ve made that first purchase.

Long term, purchasing bricks and mortar still looks a very safe bet. Compare average house price increases to current savings rates or other investments, including bonds and ISAs, or perhaps even versus the volatility of Crypto investments, the saying “as safe as houses” still rings as true today as it did 50 years ago.

For professional advice on all aspects of buying or selling speak to one of our experts. Contact Elizabeth Davenport on 01789 549 549.

If your property has been on sale without success for more than 3 months then this probably means something is wrong with the marketing. This could be any of a number of things, perhaps the photos aren’t up to scratch or maybe the property isn’t being advertised through the right channels. Just as likely though is the possibility that your home is on sale at too high an asking price.

We hear many homeowners say “If the price is too high then people will just make lower offers.” Unfortunately this often isn’t the case and in reality overpriced homes often receive few viewings and subsequently don’t receive any offers at all. The reason for this is simple.

An RICS report has shown that 70% of buyers pay 20% more than they originally set out to spend. This means that if your property is worth say £400,000 the most likely buyers will have been searching for properties advertised between £320,000 – £400,000. So if you put your home on sale at £450,000 the most likely buyers won’t be coming to view it. In fact all of the WRONG buyers will come and view and when they do it won’t live up to their expectations. So you won’t receive any offers.

So asking price is critical in attracting viewings but even more crucially it’s very important in attracting the RIGHT viewers. In Warwickshire over the last couple of years there has generally been a shortage of property for sale so if your home goes on sale at the correct price and is promoted well by your Estate Agent with good marketing details then you should be able to find a buyer in a matter of weeks.

Call Elizabeth Davenport today for more expert advice on selling your property or for a free valuation.

Recent results showed that house prices in the midlands rose by 33% in the last decade from 2010 to 2020. This compared to average wage rises of 20% during the same period. The price rises were in line with the average across the country, London predictably faired the best with 66% rises whilst other regions in the north and west didn’t fair anywhere near as well.

Rises were way short of those seen in the previous decade. The 2000s saw big property price increases, the midlands saw 108% whilst London faired slightly better at 111%. However these figures still didn’t come close to those achieved in the 1980s when prices in the midlands rose by a whopping 196% over a 10 year period.

On average, prices in the midlands over the last 40 years have risen 88% for each decade. That’s an incredible statistic and illustrates the huge and constant upward pressure on prices. For sure there have been periods of stagnation and falls (notably during the credit crunch when the lack of availability in the mortgage market drained the supply of funds available), but the reality remains that when demand outstrips supply prices will continue to head north.

With a continued shortage of new properties being built and a growing population, this isn’t going to change any time soon so property will remain an excellent investment vehicle into the forseeable future. And with no immediate signs of interest rate rises, the benefits of putting money into savings are hard to see, whilst investing in stocks or shares is a huge gamble unless you know exactly what you’re doing.

The phrase “As Safe as Houses” is here to stay, so if you are after a solid investment or simply looking for your next home, there’s never been a better time to venture into the world of bricks and mortar. If you already own property in the Kenilworth, Leamington or Warwick area and want to know the up to date value, call Elizabeth Davenport for expert advice today on 01926 298 298.

We recently dealt with 2 identical properties located just yards from one another. Theoretically they were both worth the same amount, there was nothing in it. Both went onto the market within a few weeks of one another and both were sold. BUT…One of them sold for significantly more than the other. How on earth did this happen?

The first property was valued by our agency and subsequently marketed with our usual high quality details and at the correct market asking price. There was a brilliant response and lots of buyers flocked over to view, with several offers being quickly received and very soon a buyer was selected. Job done.

The second property was also valued by our agency, but subsequently went on sale with a low-budget Estate Agent at an inflated asking price. The house sat on the market for several weeks attracting little interest. The photos that appeared online were of poor quality, some were blurred and out of focus, others were very dark and the house looked unappealing. Some weeks later the asking price was reduced to the correct level, however by then the property had gone stale on the market and buyers were suspicious. Three or four months later the owners reduced the asking price further and eventually accepted an offer some 5% below the figure achieved by their neighbours.

They saved several hundred pounds in Estate Agency fees but lost several thousand pounds on the sale price of their home. As someone once said “The cheapest option often turns out to be the most expensive…….”

Elizabeth Davenport have a track record of achieving excellent results for our clients. If you want to work with a High Quality Estate Agent then please call us today on 01926 298 298 and we can help get your home sold.

Despite the school summer holidays and some continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit, etc, a very healthy and encouraging number of sales have been achieved during July and August at our Kenilworth Branch. Sales achieved represented a broad range of values and property types, showing that buyers are electing to “get on with it” and not let the continued media circus put them off.

Not that surprising really when you think about it. I’m currently in the process of buying a property myself, the main motivation being that my family and my son in particular need a bigger home and more space to run around in. It’s a decision that has been made out of necessity and when it comes down to it, the “shall we or shan’t we” dilemma turned out to be a no brainer. As a family we are more interested in ourselves and our own lifestyle than what a few hundred dithering politicians are doing in Westminster.

Purchasing a home and investing in property is a long term proposition and whilst in the short term the market can fluctuate, in the long term property prices always go up. In fact as a rule of thumb prices double every 10 years so the phrase “as safe as houses” has been around for decades and is here to stay. The supply of property available for sale continues to fall whilst demand continues to rise.

If you are still thinking of moving in 2019 then now is a fantastic time, September always brings a busy and bustling market once the kids have returned to school. Call our office today on 01926 298 298 to arrange your free property appraisal and set the ball rolling. You’ll be glad you did.